Odds of Shooting an Exceptional Tournament Score
|
0-5 |
6-12 |
13-21 |
22-30 |
GREATER THAN 30 |
| Net Differential |
odds |
odds |
odds |
odds |
odds |
| 0 |
5:1 |
5:1 |
6:1 |
5:1 |
5:1 |
| -1 |
10:1 |
10:1 |
10:1 |
8:1 |
7:1 |
| -2 |
23:1 |
22:1 |
21:1 |
13:1 |
10:1 |
| -3 |
57:1 |
51:1 |
43:1 |
23:1 |
15:1 |
| -4 |
151:1 |
121:1 |
87:1 |
40:1 |
22:1 |
| -5 |
379:1 |
276:1 |
174:1 |
72:1 |
35:1 |
| -6 |
790:1 |
536:1 |
323:1 |
130:1 |
60:1 |
| -7 |
2349:1 |
1200:1 |
552:1 |
229:1 |
101:1 |
| -8 |
20111:1 |
4467:1 |
1138:1 |
382:1 |
185:1 |
| -9 |
48219:1 |
27877:1 |
3577:1 |
695:1 |
359:1 |
| -10 |
125000:1 |
84300:1 |
37000:1 |
1650:1 |
874:1 |
The values in this table only include pairs of best negative differentials and determines how many strokes a golfer's handicap should be reduced to allow his best two differential likelihood to be an acceptable "rarity".
As an example, consider the golfer whose best two differentials of his last 20 scores were -6 and -8 and the player has a handicap of 15. This event would have a 1 in 7,249 chance. If a threshold of 1 in 258 was established as the limit of reasonability, this player should have his handicap lowered three strokes (three diagonal steps to the left in the following table).
|
0 |
-1 |
-2 |
-3 |
-4 |
-5 |
-6 |
-7 |
-8 |
-9 |
-10 |
| 0 |
27 |
46 |
92 |
199 |
408 |
869 |
1808 |
2480 |
3871 |
9180 |
85779 |
| -1 |
46 |
13 |
26 |
58 |
118 |
253 |
526 |
722 |
1126 |
2672 |
24967 |
| -2 |
96 |
26 |
20 |
43 |
89 |
191 |
398 |
546 |
853 |
2023 |
18907 |
| -3 |
199 |
58 |
43 |
59 |
121 |
258 |
537 |
737 |
1150 |
2728 |
25492 |
| -4 |
408 |
118 |
89 |
121 |
200 |
427 |
888 |
1219 |
1903 |
4512 |
42163 |
| -5 |
869 |
253 |
191 |
258 |
427 |
821 |
1708 |
2343 |
3657 |
8672 |
81030 |
| -6 |
1808 |
526 |
398 |
537 |
888 |
1708 |
3385 |
4644 |
7249 |
17189 |
**** |
| -7 |
2480 |
722 |
546 |
737 |
1219 |
2343 |
4644 |
6225 |
9716 |
23041 |
**** |
| -8 |
3871 |
853 |
1150 |
1903 |
3657 |
2343 |
7249 |
9716 |
14912 |
35361 |
**** |
| -9 |
9180 |
2672 |
2023 |
2728 |
4512 |
8672 |
17109 |
23041 |
35361 |
82951 |
**** |
| -10 |
85779 |
24967 |
18907 |
25492 |
42163 |
81030 |
**** |
**** |
**** |
**** |
**** | |
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